(To the tune of "As time goes by" from Casablanca)

You must remember this

A proof is not a proof

A conjecture is not a conjecture

The fundamental things apply

As pure math goes by

The late William Thurston helped bring about  “The Death of Proof” (Scientific American Blog). You might say that there is a lot of math that can be proved, and maybe if if can't be proved, its not math!

That is true and it depends what you mean by "proved". In Godel's theory most of math can not be formally proved in systems that do not contain contradictions themselves... so are those proofs valid? We act as though they are... And how is this different from physics where it is all conjecture based on experimental evidence and if a new set of experiments comes along that break the old theory we bring in new ones. There is a school of experimental math that works a similar way using computer programs to both create experimental data and to do formal proofs of the conjectures. They even have a journal about experimental math now, so it is getting quiet popular.

Prof Doron Zeilberger in his provocative essay says that proving by computer programming gives more understanding than proving by hand

Some of the experiments in math even become art

This entry was posted on August 25, 2012 at 12:56 PM and has received 1426 views. There are currently 0 comments. Print this entry.

Ok I understand why the army needs to buy hundreds of thousands of bullets, but the Social Security Administration and DHS? Are they expecting to go to war with Syria? Or are they planning to fight people closer to home...

Why Does The U.S. Government Need So Much Ammunition?

In my previous article, I also noted that the U.S. government appears to be very rapidly making preparations for something really big. This week, it was revealed that the Social Security Administration plans to buy 174,000 hollow point bullets which will be delivered to 41 different locations all over America.

 

Now why in the world does the Social Security Administration need 174,000 bullets? And why do they need hollow point bullets?  Those bullets are designed to cause as much damage to internal organs as possible.

 

But of course this is only the latest in a series of very large purchases of ammunition by U.S. government agencies.  The following is from a recent article by Paul Joseph Watson....

Back in March, Homeland Security purchased 450 million rounds of .40-caliber hollow point bullets that are designed to expand upon entry and cause maximum organ damage, prompting questions as to why the DHS needed such a large amount of powerful bullets merely for training purposes.

 

This was followed by another DHS solicitation asking for a further 750 million rounds of assorted bullets, including 357 mag rounds that are able to penetrate walls.

Now why in the world would the government need over a billion rounds of ammunition? If it was the U.S. military I could understand this.  You can burn through a whole lot of ammunition fighting wars. But this makes no sense - unless they believe that big trouble is coming.

 

Personally, I wouldn't blame them for getting prepared.  Our economy continues to fall apart and there are signs of social decay everywhere around us. The American people are more frustrated and more angry than at any other time in modern history.  This upcoming election is only going to cause Americans to become even more angry and even more divided.

 

All it would take is just the right "spark" to cause this country to erupt. It could be the upcoming election. It could be the collapse of the financial system. Or it might be something else. But the conditions are definitely there for it to happen.

 

Unfortunately, the American public is never told to prepare because authorities never want "to panic" the general population. So don't wait for someone to come on the television and announce that a crisis is happening. If you wait that long, it will be too late. Instead, open up your eyes and think for yourself.

 

We all need to work hard to get prepared for the coming crisis while we still can. As you can see, Wall Street insiders, the U.S. government and the central banks of the world are busy getting prepared. Don't put your head in the sand. The warning signs are there and time is running out.

From http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/startling-evidence-that-central-banks-and-wall-street-insiders-are-rapidly-preparing-for-something-big

This entry was posted on August 17, 2012 at 7:12 PM and has received 1074 views. There are currently 2 comments. Print this entry.

It certainly seems to me that the financial markets and some countries are going to collapse soon. But have banks and governments been preparing on the QT too?

Are The Government & The Big Banks Quietly Preparing For Imminent Financial Collapse?
08/15/2012

Something really strange appears to be happening. All over the globe, governments and big banks are acting as if they are anticipating an imminent financial collapse. Unfortunately, we are not privy to the quiet conversations that are taking place in corporate boardrooms and in the halls of power in places such as Washington D.C. and London, so all we can do is try to make sense of all the clues that are all around us.

Of course it is completely possible to misinterpret these clues, but sticking our heads in the sand is not going to do any good either. Last week, it was revealed that the U.S. government has been secretly directing five of the biggest banks in America "to develop plans for staving off collapse" for the last two years. By itself, that wouldn't be that big of a deal. But when you add that piece to the dozens of other clues of imminent financial collapse, a very troubling picture begins to emerge....

Over the past 12 months, hundreds of banking executives have been resigning, corporate insiders have been selling off enormous amounts of stock, and I have been personally told that a significant number of Wall Street bankers have been shopping for "prepper properties" in rural communities this summer. Meanwhile, there have been reports that the U.S. government has been stockpiling food and ammunition, and Barack Obama has been signing a whole bunch of executive orders that would potentially be implemented in the event of a major meltdown of society. So what does all of this mean?

It could mean something or it could mean nothing. What we do know is that a financial collapse is coming at some point. Over the past 40 years, the total amount of all debt in the United States has grown from about 2 trillion dollars to nearly 55 trillion dollars. That is a recipe for financial Armageddon, and it is inevitable that this gigantic bubble of debt is going to burst at some point.

 

In normal times, the U.S. government does not tell major banks to "develop plans for staving off collapse".

But according to a recent Reuters article, that is apparently exactly what has been happening....
U.S. regulators directed five of the country's biggest banks, including Bank of America Corp and Goldman Sachs Group Inc, to develop plans for staving off collapse if they faced serious problems, emphasizing that the banks could not count on government help.

The two-year-old program, which has been largely secret until now, is in addition to the "living wills" the banks crafted to help regulators dismantle them if they actually do fail. It shows how hard regulators are working to ensure that banks have plans for worst-case scenarios and can act rationally in times of distress.

Does it seem odd to anyone else that only five really big banks got such a warning? And why keep it secret from the American public?

Does the federal government actually expect such a collapse to happen?

 

If federal officials do expect a financial collapse to occur, they would not be the only ones. An increasing number of very respected economists are speaking about the coming financial collapse as if there is a certain inevitability about it.

For example, check out the following quote from a recent Money Morning article....

Richard Duncan, formerly of the World Bank and chief economist at Blackhorse Asset Mgmt., says America's $16 trillion federal debt has escalated into a "death spiral," as he told CNBC.

 

And it could result in a depression so severe that he doesn't "think our civilization could survive it." A former World Bank executive is warning that our civilization might not survive what is coming? That is pretty chilling.

Economist Nouriel Roubini says that he believes that the coming crisis will be even worse than 2008....

"Worse because like 2008 you will have an economic and financial crisis but unlike 2008, you are running out of policy bullets. In 2008, you could cut rates; do QE1, QE2; you could do fiscal stimulus; you could backstop/ringfence/guarantee banks and everybody else. Today, more QEs are becoming less and less effective because the problems are of solvency not liquidity. Fiscal deficits are already so large and you cannot bail out the banks because 1) there is a political opposition to it; and 2) governments are near-insolvent - they cannot bailout themselves let alone their banks. The problem is that we are running out of policy rabbits to pull out of the hat!"

Across the pond, many European officials are echoing similar sentiments. What Nigel Farage told King World News the other day is very ominous.... Today MEP (Member European Parliament) Nigel Farage spoke with King World News about what he described as the possibility of, “a really dramatic banking collapse.” Farage also warned that central planners want to enslave and imprison people inside of a ‘New Order,’ and he described the situation as “horrifying.”

The situation in Europe continues to get worse and worse. The authorities in Europe have come out with "solution" after "solution", and yet unemployment continues to skyrocket and economic conditions in the EU have deteriorated very steadily over the past 12 months.

If all of that was not bad enough, there are an increasing number of indications that Germany is actually considering leaving the euro. Needless to say, that would be a complete and total disaster for the rest of the eurozone.
Of course there are any number of ways that the financial crisis in Europe could potentially play out.

But all of the realistic scenarios would be very bad for the global economy. Meanwhile, our resources are dwindling, war in the Middle East could erupt at any moment and our planet is becoming increasingly unstable. The following is from a recent article by Paul B. Farrell on Marketwatch.com....

Fasten your seat belts, soon we’ll all be shocked out of denial. Some unpredictable black swan. A global wake-up call will trigger the Pentagon’s prediction in Fortune a decade ago at the launch of the Iraq War: “By 2020 ... an ancient pattern of desperate, all-out wars over food, water, and energy supplies is emerging ... warfare defining human life.”

It is almost as if a "perfect storm" is brewing.
Of course the historic drought that is ravaging food production in the United States this summer is not helping matters either. Another summer or two like this one and we could be looking at a return of Dust Bowl conditions.

Anyone that is watching what is going on in the world and is not concerned at all about what is happening is simply being delusional

Recently, a "team of scientists, economists, and geopolitical analysts" examined the current state of the global economic system and the conclusions they reached were absolutely staggering.... One member of this team, Chris Martenson, a pathologist and former VP of a Fortune 300 company, explains their findings:

"We found an identical pattern in our debt, total credit market, and money supply that guarantees they're going to fail. This pattern is nearly the same as in any pyramid scheme, one that escalates exponentially fast before it collapses. Governments around the globe are chiefly responsible.

"And what's really disturbing about these findings is that the pattern isn't limited to our economy. We found the same catastrophic pattern in our energy, food, and water systems as well."

According to Martenson: "These systems could all implode at the same time. Food, water, energy, money. Everything."

Hmmmm - it sounds like they have been reading The Economic Collapse Blog. The truth is that a massive worldwide financial collapse is coming. It is inevitable, and it is going to be extremely painful. So what do you think about all of this?

From

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/are-the-government-and-the-big-banks-quietly-preparing-for-an-imminent-financial-collapse

This entry was posted on August 17, 2012 at 6:21 PM and has received 521 views. There are currently 0 comments. Print this entry.

This might be worth trying out for a month or two to see if your health improves. Both GMO soy meal and  corn syrup are in many processed foods, ice cream etc. It might help high blood pressure and skin issues shingles issues because an immune response can affect blood vessels and skin.

I think GMO items are labeled in UK and Europe. In USA there is no labeling so far, but there is a move in California to start requiring GMO labeling of foods (I imagine there is too much industry lobbying by Monsanto against labeling)

Are genetically modified (GM) foods making you sick – I mean really sick? Up until recently, all that we could say was thank goodness you’re not a lab rat; GM feed messes them up big time. GMOs (genetically modified organisms) appear to trigger the immune systems of both mice and rats as if they were under attack. In addition, the gastrointestinal system is adversely affected, animals age more quickly, and vital organs are damaged. When fed GM foods, lab animals can also become infertile, have smaller or sterile offspring, increased infant mortality, and even hair growing in their mouths. Have I got your attention?

 

Biotechnology corporations such as Monsanto try to distort or deny the evidence, sometimes pointing to their own studies that supposedly show no reactions. But when scientists such as French toxicologist G.E. Seralini re-­analyzed Monsanto’s raw data, it actually showed that the rats fed GM corn suffered from clear signs of toxicity – evidence that industry scientists skillfully overlooked.

More at http://vitalitymagazine.com/article/dramatic-health-recoveries-reported/

This entry was posted on August 17, 2012 at 5:59 PM and has received 1349 views. There are currently 0 comments. Print this entry.

As I move my stuff from my storage locker to my apartment in Cusco Peru I often chose to pack as much as I can. Three tips that have helped me get more than the weight allowance on a flight: use a duffel bag, be friendly, and try a different check-in agent if the first one doesn't work.

I recently traveled on American Airlines and LAN from Washington DC to Cusco Peru. I had a 69 lb suitcase, a 58 lb duffel bag and 15 lb backpack and a handbag. I was concerned at having to pay for two overweight bags at $100 each according to AA's website. I knew the minimum fee would be $30 for one extra bag (AA gives you one 50 lb bag for free on international flights).

I prayed to the travel angels, connected with the light, expanded my heart and asked myself "what would it take to pay $100 or less in fees". Then I smiled and kept a positive and friendly attitude with the ticketing agent and struck up a friendly conversation with her. And when I put the duffel bag on the scale the ends must have been drooping off the edges of the scale because it only showed 42 lbs! The suitcase showed the whole 69 lbs that I was expecting so the scale wasn't broken. Then the agent researched the fees and discovered that instead of paying the $100 AA overweight fee I could pay the $90 LAN overweight fee. Yippee!

Update: My flight was canceled and I had to return the next day. I could have left my bags to travel without me and picked up in Cusco but I wasn't keen on leaving them at the carrousel in Peru for hours without me so I took them overnight to a friend's house and checked back in the next morning at curbside. This agent was not so friendly and he put the duffel bag on the scale himself end up instead of me putting it on with the ends hanging over the edge. The true weight of 58lb showed. I asked for a break due to flight delay and when he said no I just went inside to check in at the ticket counter instead. This time I showed the agent that I have already checked in and had luggage tags - she just printed new ones and put them on without reweighing. So sometimes it pays if you don't get by the first agent to try another one...

This entry was posted on August 14, 2012 at 8:12 PM and has received 1444 views. There are currently 0 comments. Print this entry.

It has been a while since my last email on my adventures. I will give some catch up emails another time, meanwhile one question I have been asked is: How can you travel indefinitely (if you are not Bill Gates)? One way is to save money by visiting low cost countries, cooking your own food and using buses rather than planes. I have done this when I lived in Bolivia and had a good time on less than $500 per month.

Looking at the other side of the income-expense equation of traveling there are many ways to make income while you travel. I make more than I spend per day by running my business remotely via skype and email. I have met other travelers who can cover their travel costs indefinitely by travel writing, selling photos, teaching English, doing import-export of local handy crafts or working in local tourism businesses. Once I have paid off all my old business debts and credit cards I will be making more money than I spend. Yay!

Even if you don't make enough to completely cover all your expenses it can let you travel for longer than you could just on savings. Some of the travelers I have met work 8-16 hours per week to cover the week's expenses because they are paying expenses in a low cost country like Peru and earning money remotely in a high pay/high expense country like the US or Europe.

Another approach is the "4 hour work week" (Tim Ferris) one of working for a few months then taking a 3 month mini-retirement of traveling. Rinse and repeat indefinitely. His book and website also have lots of info on starting your own online business or negotiating to work remotely.  I have met some Australian miners who earn enough in a year to travel for two years without working. I have also read of some miners in Australia who work 14 days straight and then take off 14 days living in Bali and traveling in SE Asia - again they do this indefinitely.

More ideas and travel tips at Travel Stack Exchange - a great place to ask and answer travel questions by the way! And other ideas on travel and money from  Benny Lewis, the fluenent in any language in 3 months guy.


What are you long term travel tips?

This entry was posted on August 14, 2012 at 7:18 PM and has received 2053 views. There are currently 0 comments. Print this entry.

Interesting analysis from Internation Man of how the collapse may play out in some countries. We have already seen many of these 11 stages in Argentina after the 2001 collapse. And now in Greece. The first 3 stages have already occured in US, UK and other Western countries with large debt levels. So this is a possible roadmap of collapse in these countries too.

Without a drastic change in public awareness of what is really going on and a corresponding change in political will to ameliorate the predicaments that we are in. (I don't say solve problems because the situations we are in don't have complete solutions to avoid all pain - we can reduce the total pain experienced by addressing the issues now or we can put off the pain for a while with the promise of greater pains later)

With all the study and thought that are required to make sense out of how the Great Unraveling will play out, we seldom take time to think of what it will be like on the other side. Those of us who are, by nature, long-term thinkers and/or optimistic, have a vague picture in mind of a rebirth of libertarian thinking, and a vibrant economy. However, we tend not to think too much more about these hopes than that, because we are caught up in the Great Unraveling itself - a very time-consuming topic.

The other day, an associate whom I like to think of as having a decent, if not holistic, view of the present depression, commented to me, "I wish we could just have the crash tomorrow and everything that goes with it, so that, next year, we can get back to normal."

Oops ... maybe his expectations are a bit more simplified than I thought. And, if others share his view, possibly the topic needs a bit of fleshing-out. While it may not be ready to be a prime topic of the ongoing conversation, possibly an outline of what may happen after all the fireworks have gone off would be in order.

Ten Years Down and Ten Years Up

Economic wizard (and favourite 'Uncle') Harry Schultz stated back in the early 2000's that what he anticipated was "ten years down and ten years up." At the time, many thought that his projection was extremely prolonged. I didn't think so. People do commonly seem to take the view that, once the various crashes have taken place, we simply walk out into the sun, brush the dirt off the knees of our trousers, and, with a spring in our step, walk into the bright new day.

However, a depression is not at all like that. It is more like a town after a hurricane has hit. The storm may have been swift, but the recovery is not. Power lines are down. Roads are blocked. Homes and stores have been destroyed. Having personally been highly involved in the reconstruction of a small country after the devastation wrought by a category five hurricane, I can attest that, even if the population is hardworking and motivated (which they were), the task of rebuilding is monumental, and the time period required to achieve it is prolonged.

I see the period after the various crashes very differently from those who anticipate immediate recovery symptoms. This is not because I imagine myself a visionary; my view is based on history. If we look at the economic collapses of the past, (inclusive of their possible knock-on effects, such as hyperinflation and destruction of the currency), from the fall of the Roman Empire to Weimar Germany, to Argentina and Zimbabwe - take your pick - the pattern is extremely similar.

So, let's have a look at that pattern and ask ourselves if the present situation might not play out much the same (except far worse and more prolonged, as the conditions that led to this particular depression have been more extreme). The various stages are likely to be a given, but the various factors within each stage are a bit more uncertain. In every major economic collapse, some combination of these factors takes place.

Also, consider that the stages themselves are like dominoes - they almost always fall in order. The reason? Details change in history, but human nature remains the same. The same knee-jerk reactions by people will repeat themselves over and over. (As an example, we are now experiencing a decline in exports from the First World. I believe that a repeat of the disastrous Smoot-Hawley Tariff of the 1930's will be passed in America, which undoubtedly would trigger increased hardship for Americans.)

Stages of The Crash

The stages are laid out below. The first three have already occurred.

1 INITIAL CRASHES

• Crash of the residential property market
• Crash of the commercial property market
• Crash of the stock market

2 INITIAL KNOCK-ON EFFECTS OF CRASHES

• Loss of homes
• Loss of jobs
• Inflation

3 IMMEDIATE ACTIONS BY GOVERNMENT

• Bailouts for select groups
• Dramatic increase of debt
• Politicians going in the opposite direction of a real solution

The first knee-jerk reaction began immediately, with the Government attempting to "make the problem go away" as quickly as possible. Almost invariably, at this stage, the corrective strategy is hastily prepared and shortsighted, assuring further deterioration of the economy.

In this stage, the politicians on both sides fail to focus on a real solution. Instead, their primary focuses are, first, to avoid a painful real solution, and, second, to engage in finger-pointing, each political party blaming the other for the problem. The problem worsens steadily until one of the next series of major dominoes falls. This is usually sudden and triggers the toppling of other dominoes.

4 SECOND WAVE OF CRASHES

• Major crash in stock market
• Currency plummets
• Increased bankruptcies
• Increased unemployment

5 INTERNATIONAL TRADING PARTNERS REACT

• Foreign countries refuse to accept more debt
• Foreign trade slows dramatically

At this point, the Government introduces dramatic change, such as ill-conceived protectionism, which backfires almost immediately.

6 GOVERNMENT INSTITUTES DESPERATE SELF-DESTRUCTIVE MEASURES

• Defaults on debt
• Restrictive tariffs on imports
• Currency controls

7 ECONOMY REACTS IN LOCKSTEP TO GOVERNMENT ACTIONS

• Hyperinflation - dramatic increase in food and fuel costs
• Massive unemployment
• Extensive foreclosures
• Extensive bankruptcies

At this point, the dominoes are tumbling quickly, and a rapid unraveling of control is about to take place.

8 SYSTEMIC COLLAPSE

• Bank closures
• Extensive homelessness
• Food and fuel shortages
• Electric power becomes sporadic, blackouts common

As these factors unravel, the public mood turns to a combination of blind fear and anger.

9 SOCIAL COLLAPSE

• Crime rises dramatically (particularly street crime)
• Food riots
• Tax revolts
• Squatters' rebellions

10 MARTIAL LAW

• Creation of special army to address "domestic terrorism"
• Random killings become commonplace

At first, the authorities focus mostly on violent subjugation and arrests; then, as prisons quickly become hopelessly overcrowded, camps become the norm. Soon, these too become unmanageable, particularly as a result of high cost of food and manpower. At that point, the solution turns to the killing of anyone who is suspected of a crime and, more frequently, anyone who is not submissive. (This will not resemble the Gestapo of the late 1930's. It will be less organized and more chaotic.)

11 REVOLUTION

If revolution is to occur, it will happen at this point. Many people will feel that they have nothing to lose, and anger will be at its peak. If revolution does take place, it will not be an organized movement as such. It will be spontaneous, and breakouts will manifest themselves like popcorn popping, largely at random, with ever-increasing frequency. At some point, it may possibly evolve into something more organized.

The above article concludes the assessment of the first phase of the Greater Depression - the downward wave. Next week's article will explore the upward wave - the Recovery.

From http://www.internationalman.com/global-perspectives/after-the-storm-the-11-stages-of-the-crash

This entry was posted on August 14, 2012 at 5:33 PM and has received 614 views. There are currently 0 comments. Print this entry.

Tony Robbins explains that the 15 trillion dollar deficit is too big to pay down by just taking all the money from the rich people and corporations, let alone just increasing their taxes. Spending will need to be cut too.

This entry was posted on August 12, 2012 at 9:13 PM and has received 929 views. There are currently 0 comments. Print this entry.

Is the official government inflation rate lower that the real rate of price increases? There are enormous benefits to a government understating the rate of inflation - looks better politically, lower payments on indexed linked pensions and wages among others. There is evidence that the UK and US governments both understate the true inflation rate (by about 5% per annum). Here is a detailed article on how the Argentinian government has been doing the same thing but is a little further along the road of false statistics (understating by about 15% per annum) and intimidation of independent statisticians. Perhaps a window of the future of inflation in the UK and US (and much of the rest of Europe I imagine).

Since 2007, when Guillermo Moreno, the secretary of internal trade, was sent into the statistics institute, INDEC, to tell its staff that their figures had better not show inflation shooting up, prices and the official record have parted ways. Private-sector economists and statistical offices of provincial governments show inflation two to three times higher than INDEC's number (which only covers greater Buenos Aires). Unions, including those from the public sector, use these independent estimates when negotiating pay rises. Surveys by Torcuato di Tella University show inflation expectations running at 25-30%.
In this section

PriceStats, a specialist provider of inflation rates which produces figures for 19 countries that are published by State Street, a financial services firm, puts the annual rate at 24.4% and cumulative inflation since the beginning of 2007 at 137%. INDEC says that the current rate is only 9.7%, and that prices have gone up a mere 44% over that period (see chart).


The government has gone to extraordinary lengths, involving fines and threats of prosecution, to try to stop independent economists from publishing accurate inflation numbers. The American Statistical Association has protested at the political persecution faced by its Argentine colleagues, and is urging the United Nations to act, on the ground that the harassment is a violation of the right to freedom of expression.

Read more at http://www.economist.com/node/21548229

This entry was posted on August 12, 2012 at 8:32 PM and has received 551 views. There are currently 0 comments. Print this entry.