The Titanic is unsinkable. Look at the water tight compartments. See how they go up all the way to the 5 deck level! Notice how experienced the captain is and how he can steer the ship in any direction he wants to because it is the biggest and most power ship the world has ever known. And I can't see any icebergs anyway (who cares that it is dark moonless night and so calm that no waves are breaking on the iceberg anyway).

Sure we have a look out but hey if he needs to take a nap or something no big deal because we have those water tight compartments! No modern ship this big has ever sunk. And the Titanic is unsinkable. Just have a drink and enjoy the party, nothing can go wrong.

And if you believe that then read this article on why a US currency crisis is impossible too.
 

This entry was posted on July 23, 2014 at 3:56 AM and has received 1669 views. There are currently 0 comments. Print this entry.

We study how to be more successful by looking at how great business people do things. Perhaps this is fatally flawed. We never see all the failures to see how they failed.

David McRaney in his article "Survivorship Bias"  says:
 

The Misconception: You should study the successful if you wish to become successful.

The Truth: When failure becomes invisible, the difference between failure and success may also become invisible.

The problem is that there can be common patterns how all the failed business have that you just don't see because they are never studied. In the article (which is a long read but worth it) he gives the example of WWII air force generals coming to top statisticians asking them where to add armor to bombers so fewer are shot down. The top brass got it totally wrong due to survivor bias in the data.

The military looked at the bombers that had returned from enemy territory. They recorded where those planes had taken the most damage. Over and over again, they saw the bullet holes tended to accumulate along the wings, around the tail gunner, and down the center of the body. Wings. Body. Tail gunner. Considering this information, where would you put the extra armor? Naturally, the commanders wanted to put the thicker protection where they could clearly see the most damage, where the holes clustered. But Wald said no, that would be precisely the wrong decision. Putting the armor there wouldn’t improve their chances at all.

The correct answer was to put armor where the surviving planes did not have holes because those are the places that the shot down planes had been hit in! Genius. Saved a lot of lives over the "obvious decision".

So where in your business life or personal improvement are you reading only about success stories? Following the "top ten ways Ms X succeeded" and trying to do those ten things in your life. Perhaps some study or thought on how the other 90% of folks failed and then avoiding those might be more useful....

Additional credit: I was tipped off to David's article by author Charles Hugh Smith who's blog is www.oftwominds.com and covers collapse, economics and future of society.

This entry was posted on June 13, 2013 at 9:13 PM and has received 1552 views. There are currently 0 comments. Print this entry.

Interesting details on the situation in Argentina today below. I remember price and wage controls in England in the 70s during the high inflation we had then. And I have read about how Roman Emperor Diocletian issued an Edict on Maximum Prices in 301, one of the last Western Roman emperors, who was trying to control the inflation caused by debasing the currency by controlling prices. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_currency#Debasement_of_the_currency ). I don't think they worked well in 301, 1971 or will in 2013.

Merchants either stopped producing goods, sold their goods illegally, or used barter. The Edict tended to disrupt trade and commerce, especially among merchants. It is safe to assume that a gray market economy evolved out of the edict at least between merchants.

 

Sometimes entire towns could no longer afford to produce trade goods. Because the Edict also set limits on wages, those who had fixed salaries (especially soldiers) found that their money was increasingly worthless as the artificial prices did not reflect actual costs.

 

As the fiscal situation in UK, US, much of rest of Europe and Japan is similar to Argentina a few years ago, or even the Roman Empire 1700 years ago, I think a similar outcome is likely. When governments consistently spend far more than they generate in taxes and fees then borrowing and/or money printing dramatically increase. At a certain point the lenders and people exchanging foreign currencies loose confidence in the government's ability to repay in real terms. Then interest rates, inflation and exchange rates increase a lot in a short period. The government react desperately with the only measures they have available - price controls, wage controls, pension adjustments, foreign exchange controls, capital controls, tax and fee increases, reductions in services. Most citizens loose 90% or more of their wealth in real terms.

Buenos Aires, Argentina 2013

Selling snake oil and issuing unbacked paper currency are not so different. They're both wildly successful ploys for the guys pulling the strings. And they're both complete scams that depend solely on the confidence of a willing, ignorant public.

But once the confidence begins to erode, the fraud unravels very, very quickly, and the perpetrators resort to desperate measures in order to keep the party going.

In the case of fiat currency, governments in terminal decline resort to a very limited, highly predictable playbook in which they try to control... everything... imposing capital controls, exchange controls, wage controls, price controls, trade controls, border controls, and sometimes even people controls.

These tactics have been used since the ancient Sumerians. This time is not different.

Today, Argentina presents the most clear-cut example. Here the 'mafiocracy' unites organized crime, big business, and politicians to plunder wealth from Argentine citizens. Just since 2010, President Cristina Fernandez has--

 

• Nationalized private pensions, plundering the retirement savings of her people.
• Increased tax rates across the board-- income, VAT, import duties, etc. as well as imposed a new wealth tax.
• Inflated Argentina's money supply, printing currency with wanton abandon; M2 money supply has increased 215% in the past three years.
• Driven the value and purchasing power of the currency down by 50%. Street-level inflation is now 30%+ per year.
• Made a mockery of official statistics, comically understating the level of Argentine inflation and unemployment. She even began punishing economists for publishing private estimates of inflation that didn't jive with the government figures.
• Taken over control of one industry after another, most notably the nationalization of Spanish oil firm YPF's Argentine assets.
• Imposed export controls of agriculture products from beef to grains, forcing growers to sell at artificially lower domestic prices.
• Imposed capital controls, reducing her citizens' capability to dump their poorly performing currency and hold gold, dollars, euros, or anything else.
• Imposed a two month 'price freeze' on items in the supermarket, and encouraged retail consumers to rat out any grocer that doesn't abide by the government order.
• Imposed controls over the media, most recently ordered an advertising ban in Argentine newspapers (weakening their financial position).

Cristina's policies here are leading to shortages in everything from food to fuel to electricity. Hardly a month goes by without major strikes and disruptions to public services. The purchasing power of their currency is diminishing rapidly. And most people are completely trapped.

Of course, there were a handful of people who saw the writing on the wall. They learned the important lesson never to trust their government. They moved their savings to stable foreign banks. They purchased property abroad. They bought gold and silver, and stored it overseas. They were prepared when the plundering began.

The developed West is rapidly heading down this path. Europe is beginning to impose capital controls, and the IMF has sanctioned them. The US is rapidly printing its currency into oblivion, and confidence is eroding quickly. Russia just purchased an historic amount of gold, choosing real assets over more US dollar reserves.

It would be foolish to think the same things can't happen in the West. And even if it never happens, would you be any worse off for taking some of these basic steps?

From http://www.sovereignman.com/finance/this-is-what-textbook-capital-controls-look-like-10813/

This entry was posted on February 13, 2013 at 8:52 PM and has received 1200 views. There are currently 0 comments. Print this entry.

I think that most people don't understand risks and probability and can either over or under react to news stories about risk. The recent anouncement of a an Asteroid Impact Risk in USA Causes New Zealand Real Estate Boom

Real Estate prices in parts of New Zealand are reaching atmospheric highs after authorities announced that the risk of Asteroid 1997 XF11 hitting Earth close to New York State on 28 October 2028. What if the risk was 1100:1? Would you seek shelter in another country?

This wikipedia article on micromorts  has a nice list of equally risky behavior and just breathing the pollution in a big city like NYC for 2 days is one micromort so living there for 120 days or 4 months is 60 micromorts just from the air. Let alone other risk factors such as traffic. The asteroid is currently rated at 1 in 1100 in 16 years time so that is approx 60 micromorts (1000000 / 1100 / 16).

I think the other factor going on here is a cultural zeitgeist that knows that the US Empire is in serious decline and there is a likelihood of several dangers in the US. The government-industrial-media complex's Matrix of control is falling apart and people know (at least on the subconscious level) that they are at risk from high inflation, great depression 2.0, food shortages, rising crime, police state/martial law, reduction/elimination of privacy, rising sea levels covering coastal cities.

This entry was posted on February 11, 2013 at 10:03 AM and has received 1703 views. There are currently 0 comments. Print this entry.

Local police and the national Dept of Homeland Security are using drones in 5 ways to spy on citizens acording to Wired article

• Border patrol (Preditor)
• 50-pound police helicopter drones (ShadowHawk)
• tuna-shaped robot for ports and ships (BIOSwimmer)
• Tunnel bot - waterproof, has a 500-foot tether cable and can travel at a rate of 30 feet per minute. A high-resolution camera can rotate in all directions, and the robot itself can squeeze through an opening as small as six inches in diameter. (Versatrax)
• Police mini-helicopter four and a half pounds, speed 30 miles per hour (Draganflyer X6)

from http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2013/02/dhs-drones/

This entry was posted on February 10, 2013 at 3:57 PM and has received 1452 views. There are currently 0 comments. Print this entry.

A taste of things to come nearer to home?

1. devaluation and inflation in Venezuela
2. government caught faking inflation statistics in Argentina
3. major bank liquidated in Ireland

Venezuelans  lost 40% of their savings value in this month's devaluation and are loosing 22% a year from inflation. Combined that means their money is halving each year - doesn't take many years of that to have no money left (Wiemar Germany  or Zimbabwe anyone?)

Annual inflation accelerated to 22.2 percent in January, the fastest pace in eight months, led by a jump in food prices. Prices climbed 3.3 percent in January after rising 3.5 percent in December.

Venezuela devalued its currency for the fifth time in nine years

from http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-08/venezuela-devalues-currency-from-33-to-6-30-bolivars-per-dollar.html
more analysis and graph at http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-08/venezuela-devalues-its-currency-32

and in related news the Argentine government has been faking the inflation statistics (this is also done in UK and US but Argentina is worst and got caught doing it) This is a clear sign, that the government is trying to combat the EFFECTS of inflation and not the ORIGINS (either because things are so bad they are out of their control or the government it self is cosing rampant inflation through money printing which it simply refuses to stop)and therefore is doomed to failure.

the International Monetary Fund (IMF) censured Argentina for issuing inaccurate economic data. 

The government says inflation is below 11%, but economists say the real rate is double that.

Analysts have accused Argentina specifically of understating the rate of inflation since 2007 to keep interest rate payments on its debt low and to flatter the political regime.

Some economists think the annual inflation rate could rise as high as 30% this year.

from http://news.liveandinvestoverseas.com/Economy/argentina-freezes-supermarket-prices-for-two-months.html

and across the Irish sea a major bank is liquidated

The Irish government passed emergency legislation on Thursday to liquidate Anglo Irish Bank, one of Ireland’s largest financial institutions.

The legislation, which was signed into law after an all-night parliamentary session, came after negotiations with the European Central Bank over swapping so-called promissory notes, which were used to bail out the Irish lender in 2009, for long-term government bonds.

from http://news.liveandinvestoverseas.com/Economy/ireland-to-liquidate-anglo-irish-bank.html

This entry was posted on February 9, 2013 at 8:51 AM and has received 1387 views. There are currently 0 comments. Print this entry.

Drone tech is improving exponentially (a kind of Moore's law for drones). Twice as cheap and small and more powerful every year.

And the technology is not just for armies - local police departments are ordering 1000s of drones for civian survelance. Plus there is a big open source/hobbyist drone market. Any one on the planet who wants a drone can have one. Imagine the possibilities. Drones can carry cameras, microphones, wifi snoopers, explosives, chemicals, bio weapons, presents, lasers, smart AI computers, deliver packages for Amazon.com. Think where birds and insects can reach today without your noticing most of the time. Local area mapping, farmer field survey and pest control, crowd control, murder, blinding, stealing stuff, sport mom event multi camera view for the high school game, underwater exploration, police under water body searches, personalized package delivery to where you are. Then imagine a swarm of drones like a flock of birds or insects and what that might be able to do. How do you even defend against a swarm of cheap drones? You could kill hundreds and enough would get through to do the job.

And this is just one aspect of the future Singularity of tech, financial, political and social change that is occurring right now. And most people think the 2012 thing ended on 12/21/12 but really it is a multi year thing over maybe 40 years and 12/21/12 is just approx peak date for all the stuff going on.

There are also a lot of technology changes due to Moore's law for computer power doubling every 2 years and similar for many other technologies such as nanotech, DNA, space exploration, big data, medical, AI etc

Sure looks like a tech singularity to me! Plus all this energy shift and tech changes are causing old models of doing things that are bureaucratic such as government, education, big corporations, religions, financial, fiat currency with big debt, the nation state, agriculture, military, big airlines to not work well anymore And hence most (if not all) of these legacy organizations are going to collapse in the next few years. And be replaced (eventually) by a distributed network models of human interactions.

PS One last thought on drones - Imagine this size (or smaller) drone in the hands of the police or local gangs...

UK deploys toy-sized spy drones in Afghanistan

Published: 04 February, 2013, 12:32

http://rt.com/news/black-hornet-nano-drone-378/

PD-100 PRS (Image from proxdynamics.com)

British troops in Afghanistan are now using 10-centimeter-long 16-gram spy helicopters to survey Taliban firing spots. The UK Defense Ministry plans to buy 160 of the drones under a contract worth more than $31 million.

­The remote-controlled PD-100 PRS aircraft, dubbed the Black Hornet, is produced by Norwegian designer Prox Dynamics. The drone is a traditional single-rotor helicopter, scaled down to the size of a toy. British troops use the drones for reconnaissance missions, sending them ahead to inspect enemy positions.

Each drone is equipped with a tiny tillable camera, a GPS coordinate receiver and an onboard autopilot system complete with gyros, accelerometers and pressure sensors, which keeps it stable in flight against winds as strong as 10 knots, according to reviews. The tiny aircraft is agile enough to fly inside compounds, and is quiet enough not to attract unwanted attention. If detected, the drones are cheap enough to be considered expendable.

The auto-pilot either follows a preprogrammed flight plan or receives commands from a manual control station, which is about the size of a large smartphone. The drone's camera can feed compressed video or still images to an operator up to a kilometer away, and its rechargeable battery provides power for about 30 minutes of flight.

In addition to the drone and the controller, each system comes with a ground base station, which houses the operating system, main electronics, internal batteries and chargers. It also protects the drone while being transported. The weight of the entire kit is about a kilogram, easily portable in the field.

PD-100 PRS (Image from proxdynamics.com)

­Prox Dynamics started working on the nano-drone in 2008, and released a video of the first prototype in flight a year later. The manufacturer initially planned for it to be put to civilian use, to scout sites of natural or man-made disasters for survivors and provide intel to rescue teams. A marketable version of the Black Hornet was first presented at the Counter Terrorist Expo in London in April 2012.

The British Ministry of Defense announced last November that it was awarding Prox Dynamics a contract to supply the drones to its troops in Afghanistan. The initial contract is worth about $4 million, but will likely be expanded to more than $31 million.

This entry was posted on February 5, 2013 at 11:29 AM and has received 2753 views. There are currently 1 comments. Print this entry.

This entry was posted on November 15, 2012 at 1:03 AM and has received 1030 views. There are currently 0 comments. Print this entry.

What will the news be in 2100? This article from The Futurist magazine has some interesting ideas based on current trends in science and society.

Here’s the News from 2100

 

By Karl Albrecht

Dateline: January 1, 2100

Futures experts are now more divided than ever about the fate of humanity, according to World Future Society president Timothy Mack, whose brain spoke to us from his jar in the Johns Hopkins Medical Lab.

“There are two schools of futurists,” Mack explained. “There are the ‘gee-whiz’ types, whose mantra is EGBOK: ‘Everything’s Going to Be OK.’ And then there are those whose slogan is WIDD: We’re in Deep Do-Do.’” Mack’s avatar shrugged its shoulders. “I don’t know who to believe.”

Elsewhere in the futures world, Cynthia Wagner, long-serving executive editor of the society’s magazine The Futurist, confirmed that she has had the text of every article and book about the future ever published embedded in her DNA. “I couldn’t decide about the Nostradamus stuff,” she said, “but I finally included that, too.”

Speaking at the Society’s 134th annual conference, held at the Ray Bradbury Center on Mars, World Future Society founder and leading thinker Ed Cornish appeared onstage in his specially outfitted brain-mobile. His address, titled “Is the Future Here Yet?” was greeted with thunderous applause signals from the 5,000 brains in attendance.

Meanwhile, technology futurist Ray Kurzweil expressed satisfaction that 24 countries have now abolished individual names. Hereafter, all babies will be named Chip, with the serial numbers of their microchips replacing their family names. Don Tapscott, whose sixty-fourth book is titled Are You a Digital Dodo? agreed. According to Tapscott, “Today’s kids are fully digitized. The older generation will be left behind if they can’t make the brain-to-chip transformation.”

In other tech news, Google announced that it now has the DNA sequence of every human being on the planet in its database.

In the world of social media, Mark Zuckerberg, ex-CEO of the now-defunct Facebook corporation, has filed for personal bankruptcy. “We’re still showing 16.2 billion users in our database,” he said. “But we discovered that only 104 of them are still active. There’s a terrorist cell in Iowa, a few dozen college students, and a group of senior citizens in Miami Beach.” Zuckerberg had applied for welfare support in California, only to find that it had been abolished by the last 10 Republican governors. “I guess I’ll have to find a job,” he said.

Returning to generational issues, the U.S. Defense Department’s Population Control Command reports increasing difficulty in performing its mission of tracking down and shooting over-aged people.

“We’ve been tracking this one old grandma for months,” said Colonel Bo Gritz. “She’s picked off three of my best men. It’ll probably cost more to wipe her out than to just let her keep on living. We’ll have to get her with a drone.”

England’s Queen Elizabeth, that country’s longest-serving monarch, attended memorial services for her grandson Prince William, who—like his father, Prince Charles—died of natural causes. Close family members, speaking on condition of anonymity, reported that the Prince’s last words were, “I was hoping to be king for a little while, at least.” The Queen’s physician refused to comment on the secret herbal preparation he’s reportedly been giving her for the past 60 years.

Turning now to political news, the U.S. Congress is putting the final touches on legislation that will legalize marriage between human beings and computers. Marriage between human beings of the same sex, however, remains illegal.

In the economic sector, the states of Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee, and West Virginia have announced plans to merge into one state, to head off impending bankruptcy. This latest in a series of mergers brings the number of states to 17. Supported by a large infusion of cash from the Indian government, the new state will be named Bubbastan.

On the religion front, the Vatican announced today that it has formed a special council to investigate what it describes as “possibly overblown” charges of predatory sexual behavior by priests. The commission is on a fast track to deliver its findings by mid-2125.

In international news, the Chinese government confirmed that it’s in negotiations to buy Kansas. China’s spokesperson, Hu Mi, explained, “We need to guarantee a secure source of wheat and other food grains for our people.” Kansas Governor Randy Kunkel declined comment except to say, “I’ve always been fond of Chinese food.”

Turning to Wall Street, banking giant OneBank has completed its acquisition of the last remaining bank in the United States, giving it control over 400 million customers who have nowhere else to go for banking services, loans, mortgages, and credit cards. The Secretary of the Treasury, who was formerly the CEO of OneBank, announced the event, saying, “This action will streamline the nation’s financial services industry, eliminate destructive competition, and provide great services to banking customers.”

In entertainment news, reality star Miki Kardashian, granddaughter of the legendary Kim Kardashian, caused controversy at the annual TV awards festival by sending her detachable breasts instead of appearing in person. Her PR spokesperson replied to reporters’ questions with, “What’s the big problem? She had a schedule conflict. Those are the only parts people want to see anyway.”

Also on the entertainment scene, venerable comedienne Betty White has launched her latest show, Hot Sex for Hot Seniors, to air this fall. When asked by reporters how old the actress is, the show’s producer said, “God only knows. Cancel that. I think she’s older than God. But she’s still hot.”

About the author:

Karl Albrecht is a management consultant and author of more than 20 books on professional achievement, organizational performance, and business strategy, including Social Intelligence: The New Science of Success and Practical Intelligence: The Art and Science of Common Sense. Originally a physicist, and having served as a military intelligence officer and business executive, he now consults, lectures, and writes about whatever he thinks would be fun. Web site www.KarlAlbrecht.com.

This entry was posted on November 12, 2012 at 5:08 PM and has received 1049 views. There are currently 0 comments. Print this entry.

Interesting that Germany has been withdrawing hundreds of tons of foreign gold back to Germany. Like Venezuela did earlier this year but much larger and I had not heard about it until now. I got this from Weiss investment email I get.

I would certainly recommend holding some of your gold or silver physically, either in your own storage or in a non-bank overseas storage place. And I don't think gold ETFs are a good idea at this time due to counter party risk. I am on the fence about places like GoldMoney which seem to keep enough gold to cover their client's deposits.

Any thoughts on this topic?
Michael

Is a Central Bank Gold Run at Hand?

by Charles Goyette
Friday, November 2, 2012 at 7:30am

On learning that French gold was being held by the U.S. Federal Reserve, French President Charles de Gaulle is reported to have said, "I could hardly sleep easily with such an arrangement." So in 1965 he ordered French navy ships to cross the Atlantic to pick up $150 million in gold held in the Fed's New York vaults and deliver it to the Banque de France in Paris.

It was a prudent move by de Gaulle. And it was consistent with the advice I have long given: Do not leave your gold in the care of somebody else. Take physical possession of your gold.

De Gaulle realized the United States was running an international con. It had promised that holders of U.S. dollars would always be able to redeem them for gold at the official rate of $35 per ounce. But like someone writing bad checks, it was clear that the U.S. was printing more dollars than it could possibly redeem at that rate.

De Gaulle was ahead of the pack. But before long other nations figured out the same thing and began demanding gold for the dollars they held. Soon Washington began to hemorrhage gold as it faced demands to redeem tens of billions of its paper dollars.

It was nothing less than a run on the U.S. gold bank ...

On a single day in March 1971, 400 tons of gold were taken from the exchange mechanism, the London Gold Pool, forcing it to close. By August, President Nixon closed the gold window entirely, essentially defaulting on America's explicit promise of dollar convertibility.

Germany Demands Accountability

Like France, Germany has had bitter national experience with the hyperinflation of fiat currency. It should not be surprising if both nations are sensitive bellwethers when funny money business is afoot. Now we are beginning to learn about steps Germany has been taking consistent with troubling questions today about the world's central banks and the gold entrusted to their vaults.

In the (U.K.) Telegraph, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports a German court has ordered an inquiry into gold purportedly held for Germany in London, Paris, and New York:

The German Court of Auditors told legislators in a redacted report that the gold had "never been verified physically" and ordered the Bundesbank to secure access to the storage sites.

It called for repatriation of 150 tons over the next three years to test the quality and weight of the gold bars. It said Frankfurt has no register of numbered gold bars.

The report also claimed that the Bundesbank had slashed its holdings in London from 1,440 tons to 500 tons in 2000 and 2001, allegedly because storage costs were too high. The metal was flown to Frankfurt by air freight.

It may be that an audit will prove all of Germany's gold in foreign central banks can be accounted for. It may have been that France's gold would have been safe for decades in the hands of the Federal Reserve. But an environment like ours, toxic with monetary risk, demands good stewardship.

What Have Central Banks
Done with the People's Gold?

Recently I wrote an article questioning whether or not central banks have the gold they say they do. Even if the bullion is in inventory, there are pressing questions about who may hold actual title to the gold, whether it has been loaned, pledged, swapped, or sold.

The Telegraph alludes to the issue of title as well, reporting the German court's action "follows claims by the German civic campaign group 'Bring Back our Gold' and its U.S. allies in the Gold Anti-Trust Committee that official data cannot be trusted. They allege central banks have loaned out or 'sold short' much of their gold."

Asking if gold bars are actually in place is a question of inventory. Questions about title are issues that should be answered by a thorough audit. But there remain equally justifiable concerns about the authenticity of the gold held by central banks, and other depositories for that matter.

Another concerning topic is fake gold. It is by no means a marginal issue, but one that is serious enough that this year, for the first time, some of the U.S. gold held by the New York Fed has been subjected to being drilled for assay samples to test for purity. No results have been released.

Closing Thoughts

Those who showed up after August 15, 1971 with U.S. dollars they hoped to exchange for gold were too late. But de Gaulle knew there was something fishy about U.S. monetary practices well before Nixon defaulted on America's gold promises. In today's troubled environment, Germany is acting like its monetary senses are tingling.

There are warning signs aplenty for Americans that monetary conditions are growing more fragile by the day and that the fiat dollar will not last. It would be nice to know that at least the people's gold assets are secure.

In any case, remember this lesson:

Do not leave your gold in the care of somebody else.
Take physical possession of your gold.

For your Freedom and Prosperity,

Charles

This entry was posted on November 2, 2012 at 12:12 PM and has received 1113 views. There are currently 0 comments. Print this entry.