Abundant Michael

How does the future look with VR and AR glasses?

Memories with Maya is both good scifi and a relationship story with a twist. I wanted to keep reading to find out what happened next to the three main characters. I found Dan a bit irritating at first, where he doesn't express his feeling for his girlfriend Maya, but he comes through in the last third of the book.

 

I also learned many interesting ideas and applications of Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality (think more advanced than Google glasses) that I hadn't come across before. The book is an eye opener into what will soon be possible with this kind of technology and the social implications. From enhanced nightclub interactions and virtual clothing, to lie detecting glasses and remote reality sex encounters. Then there are the military applications that get Dan and Maya into serious danger...

 

Also worth taking a look at is some of the science behind the story. The author posts this at at http://www.dirrogate.com (but if you don't like spoilers, visit the site after reading the book!) and he has also written on the transhumanist aspects of VR.
 

 

Is survivorship bias getting in the way of your self improvement?

We study how to be more successful by looking at how great business people do things. Perhaps this is fatally flawed. We never see all the failures to see how they failed.

David McRaney in his article "Survivorship Bias"  says:
 

The Misconception: You should study the successful if you wish to become successful.

The Truth: When failure becomes invisible, the difference between failure and success may also become invisible.

The problem is that there can be common patterns how all the failed business have that you just don't see because they are never studied. In the article (which is a long read but worth it) he gives the example of WWII air force generals coming to top statisticians asking them where to add armor to bombers so fewer are shot down. The top brass got it totally wrong due to survivor bias in the data.

The military looked at the bombers that had returned from enemy territory. They recorded where those planes had taken the most damage. Over and over again, they saw the bullet holes tended to accumulate along the wings, around the tail gunner, and down the center of the body. Wings. Body. Tail gunner. Considering this information, where would you put the extra armor? Naturally, the commanders wanted to put the thicker protection where they could clearly see the most damage, where the holes clustered. But Wald said no, that would be precisely the wrong decision. Putting the armor there wouldn’t improve their chances at all.

The correct answer was to put armor where the surviving planes did not have holes because those are the places that the shot down planes had been hit in! Genius. Saved a lot of lives over the "obvious decision".

So where in your business life or personal improvement are you reading only about success stories? Following the "top ten ways Ms X succeeded" and trying to do those ten things in your life. Perhaps some study or thought on how the other 90% of folks failed and then avoiding those might be more useful....

Additional credit: I was tipped off to David's article by author Charles Hugh Smith who's blog is www.oftwominds.com and covers collapse, economics and future of society.

Cable TV cold turkey

I stopped watching cable TV over two years ago now. I use Netflix and Amazon Prime and DVDs when I want to watch a particular movie. Actually to be honest I watch a lot less TV now - I see friends and read books more.


I also went cold turkey on my news addiction about 10 years ago - gave up a heavy daily newspaper, TV news and NPR news habit. I have to say that helped me be much happier and if anything important happens I always hear about it from friends or in newsletters anyway.

Their is the paying the cable and internet bill cost and then there is your time and energy cost in watching stuff that you really don't want to because it is there. How much is your time and energy worth?
 

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